This is not my first prediction of the future. Yet, after reading another book on this topic, I just can’t help but to try write another random one.
Be warned. These are extremely random and most of them are without their appropriate justifications (I can write more if I get any questions). In fact, I expect my crystal ball will contradict many times with previous and future versions.
- Internet is something designed for a purpose but has been expanded and adopted for a completely different purpose. With the hardware costs coming down, Internet as we know it today will have to be very different in the future. There could be a lot more privatisation of networks in a way that they are not interconnected through one single “Internet”.
- All authentication technologies have one fundamental challenge, the ability to completely bridge that boundary between physical and digital world. Most solutions take a band-aid approach. No matter how well the technology is to identify the individual, it will at some stage and form translate that authentication into a simple digital signal. And digital information in its physical design is always subject to potential manipulation. There has to be something truly different to bridge this gap.
- Growth is so much embedded in our economical thinking that we forget to ask why is this the key. The more people therefore more output is very much an agricultural and industrial thinking. This does not fit well into our AI/robotic world. Things don’t grow by having more people but more people will certainly consume more! I will not be surprised if the world is going to have a decline/steady population going forward. If you think about it, all our environmental problems have one single cause – we simply have too many people in this world! Cut down on people!!
- Market capitalisation and the concept of ‘mark to market’ will end one day. These are stupid concepts. The fact that I create a billion shares for my empty company and one person is willing to buy a share for a dollar does not make my company a unicorn or the economy having any meaningful impact.
- AI and robotic are going to be a lot slower than what a lot of people are thinking. Specific AI and robotics will take monumental steps but generic AI/robot is still too far away from contemplation. We can make advance dish washing machines, we can iron clothes automatically, but these are extremely different from taking a person to washroom or bathing them.
- The only thing I really look forward to in AI is the ability to have real time language translation/reading/writing/listening. If this indeed happens (I doubt anytime soon), will human still have multiple languages/dialects? How would language be converged into one? What are the impact to our identity, affiliation with nationality and even culture when everyone has just ‘one’ language?
- Massive investments going into startup will lead to more inequality. As we know, most startup ventures/investment fail and only a very handful make it. The obsession with unicorn is the very problem we have in this economic development.
- A lot of occupations and industries won’t be affected by AI as easy as some (tech people) may think. Banks operate on data but they are in the business of ‘trust’. Data itself don’t build trust. All professions (and their protective circle) are there to build/promote/influence trust. We still need radiologists to use AI to tell us what’s wrong with us, not programmers. Programmers just do the work behind the scene, just like we know it today.
- Physical skill based work (because of 4) is going to be the most popular in the job market – not data scientists and programmers.
- No matter how technology advance, data scientists, programmers, cyber professionals will not be the ones who make the most money (they will certainly make relatively more). There will be new professions created just like how we created ‘middle managers’ for no good reasons. After all, we need to find ways to give ourselves ‘jobs’ and pay ourselves.
- The so called “Judgement day” in Bible could become a reality soon when everyone’s data is captured. We don’t even need God to reveals all our secrets in our lives. Hackers and government can.
- The world operates in relativity, not pure technical advancement. When the world has more technologies, human race as a whole do better, but there are always going to be rich and poor. In fact, the more advancement we have in technology, the more likely the rich/powerful will use these tools to control the poor/average. Technology does not liberate people. It does the opposite.
- Politics will become what people view religions these days.
- AI should be understood together with advancement in plastic surgery. Imagine when everyone looks the same (however beauty is defined) and think the same (using AI tools), what is an individual anymore? Why are we worried about robots when we are one already?